Friday 28 November 2008

What is deflation?

Completely out of the blue, someone in my Year 12 economics set asked me what deflation is. Apparently, there had been some discussion of this in a politics lesson and it was throught a good idea to refer the question to the economists! How wise. Best not to trust the politicians when it comes to anything to do with prices.

All the talk for the last 10 years has been about bearing down on INFLATION - the sustained increase in the general level of prices. So, why should DEFLATION matter?

Deflation is a sustained decrease in the general level of prices. 'Great', you may say. If things are getting cheaper then surely that must be good news? Well, no. If prices are continuously falling, what's the point of buying now when you can wait for prices to drop even further? If we all think like this, then spending will drop. If spending drops, overall demand drops. As demand drops that affects output. If output falls, that means jobs are lost. Defaltion matters because it causes us to hang on to our money rather than spend it and that means prolonged recession.

My challenge
A reward for the best account of the problems of deflation with an illustration from the recent economic performance of Japan.

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Thursday 20 November 2008

New GCSE - details for students and parents

From September 2009 the economics and business department will offer a new business studies and economics GCSE.

The GCSE, taught over 2 years, will allow students to engage actively in the study of both subjects and will develop skills such as building arguments and making informed judgements. Students will be encouraged to adopt a critical approach to the subjects, and appreciate different perspectives on business and economics issues.

The course is modular. Students will be assessed at various points throughout the two years and will be able to ‘bank’ their results or re-sit depending on their performance.

The course provides an excellent introduction to both business studies and economics and provides a rigorous preparation for the study of either or both subjects at A Level.

The first unit of the course provides an introduction to small business and focuses on the issues involved in setting up a business. It involves the study of entrepreneurs, how business ideas are put into practice, how business start-ups can be made effective and the economic environment in which businesses operate. It is examined by multiple-choice and objective test questions and can be sat online. Students will sit this exam at the end of Year 10 (the fourth form). This exam makes up 25% of their GCSE.

The second unit allows students to investigate a small business of their own choosing under controlled conditions in the classroom. Students are allowed six hours of research time and three hours of writing time. They are given a choice of five tasks:

Task 1: What are the most important qualities that an entrepreneur needs to possess, in order to start up and run a business successfully?

Task 2: What is the most important way in which a business you have chosen competes with its rivals?

Task 3: What is the most important way in which a business you have chosen motivates its workers?

Task 4: What is the most important element of the marketing mix to a business you have chosen?

Task 5: To what extent have recent changes in interest rates affected the business you have chosen to investigate?

This unit is marked internally and moderated by the exam board and makes up 25% of the total GCSE mark. It can be done in Year 10 (fourth form) but is more likely to be done in Year 11 (fifth form).

The final unit of the GCSE focuses entirely on economics and involves the study of a wide range of economic issues, including how markets work, international trade and exchange rates, monopoly power, how the economy is managed by governments and central banks, and debates related to economic growth, the environment and global inequality. The exam makes up 50% of the total GCSE mark and is a mixture of multiple-choice, short- and extended- answers and data response questions. Students will sit the exam at the end of Year 11 (fifth form).

Students and parents wanting to find out more about the new GCSE in business studies and economics may find these online documents useful:

The specification
Sample question papers
Student guide – page 1 and page 2
e-spec and guide

The economics and business department will be producing its own short guide to the new GCSE course shortly along with an outline scheme of work for each of the two years of the course.

Monday 3 November 2008

When down is up


My Year 11 groups are looking at the management of the economy this week and have been asked to assess the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy in stimulating demand in the economy. Quite a big question, since that is exactly the one which is exercising the likes of Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling and Mervyn King.

Today we got to the point where we had traced through the impact of lower interest rates on the economy - the monetary transmission mechanism. OK, so that makes it all very simple we thought. That should mean that the Fed's latest interest rate cut (which brings US interest rates down to 1%) and the much anticipated cut in the Bank of England's Base Rate (some think as much as 1% will be lopped off the Base Rate) should give a welcome boost to demand.

But these cuts in interest rates just aren't getting through to households and firms who. in some cases, are paying higher interest rates than they have done in the past. So why when the Base Rate of interest is coming down are market rates of interest going up?

The answer lies in our attitude to risk. Lending money to anyone is now much riskier than it has been. So the rate at which banks lend to each other has risen (so-called interbank rates) and the rates they offer to savers has gone up to try to plug the hole in the bank's balance sheets. Look at the chart at the top of this post to see what is going on. Down really does mean up.

Watch this space as the Bank of England decides what should happen to UK interest rates this Thursday. In the meantime you might like to read some of the recent articles listed below.

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